Why Conspiracy Theorists are Usually Wrong: Because Humans Can’t stop being Humans

I love a good conspiracy theory as much as the next guy. There is something attractive about the idea that there is a group of super smart people in a room controlling the world or pulling the strings behind all the major occurrences in the world. Hollywood would not exist without these conspiracies. Ultra smart rational people want to believe in these plots and you can always tie unrelated people and actions together. How long have we been asking about who really killed JFK? Coincidences are hard to understand & explain.

Conspiracies are hard, if not impossible to pull off because they involve people. People who gossip, have crazy foibles, completely irrational and literally unable to keep secrets. Ben Franklin once said “3 people can keep a secret, if 2 of them are dead.” This is why coups and rebellions are so hard to pull off. Because it involves so many people at so many levels. Someone almost always betrays the conspiracy or there are informers who end up infiltrating it. And this is even harder in the world of the Internet and social media.

I also tend to think Americans are more than likely to buy into them than many other people. And maybe we want to believe because we are horrified at the alternative idea that there is no one in charge. And hate the idea that bad things in the world happen due to accidents and randomness.

What I learned from 2020: I don’t believe there is a crazy plot behind Covid.

Hanlon’s razor says, “Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by incompetence.” I think Covid’s breakout from China and many of the governments across the world’s gross overreaction was not a master plot. I think this is just all due to people at all levels of the power structure being human. Humans who are lazy, scared, selfish & incompetent. Most people fit this category.

Do I think there are players taking advantage of this chaos, absolutely. Do I think the USA is being targeted by China and Russia with PsyOps & disinformation war? Absolutely. Read “Wires for War” by Helberg, “The Hundred Year Marathon” by Pillsbury, “Ill Winds” by Diamond, “Putin’s World” by Stent, “Three Dangerous Men” by Jones, “The Shadow War” by Sciutto & “Rigged “ by Shimer. (Yes, I have been reading a lot about this topic.) For the record we are doing the same to them too, just not as well, even though we have long experience of this in Latin America and the Middle East.

So what’s the point? There is no global conspiracy or plot. But that doesn’t mean you can’t do anything to make your life better by managing your psychology. Read good books. Watch your media diet (ie. Ignore both Fox and CNN/MSNBC), use your brain, do your own research and learn to think critically for yourself. Be resilient. And be a prepper in case of any ensuing chaos. THIS IS THE WAY.