The Next Decade: Reformation and Renaissance Framework

I was struck by Vibe Capital’s thesis and really had to share this. I think this is one of the most insightful frameworks I’ve seen for viewing the future. Dave Goldblatt absolutely nails it.

To quote Dave, this will be what the next 10 years will look like:

Reformation — 2021–2025

The next 10–15 years will be marked by unprecedented volatility and change. Similar to the Reformation, traditional power structures are being challenged as technological, climatological, and demographic forces expose inadequacies of the current system.

Renaissance — 2025–2030

During any volatile period, enormous wealth will be created, and incumbents will be disrupted.

But just as the outcome of the Reformation was the Renaissance followed by the Enlightenment, the Modern Reformation also presents a chance to usher in a dramatically restructured society: one in which power structures are more equitable, beneficial, transparent and accessible.

(Source: https://vibecap.co/our-thesis-who-we-are-and-our-portfolio)

This basically means that it’s going to be continual chaos for the next 3 years. Between major macro geopolitical changes, a cold war splitting the world between China and the United States & massive money printing everywhere, there will be a massive reset. Added on top of this, with slow rollout of the vaccines across the globe, a surprisingly large anti-vaxxer movement and the virulent nature of Covid-19 itself, we will be stuck with this pandemic for longer than many of us expected with new variants showing up.

I definitely was much more hopeful in Q1 of 2021. Sadly, I believe we will see countries going in and out of lockdowns, borders closing and opening irregularly over the next 2 years at least. This is already happening in parts of the European Union as they have opened and then closed during the summer. Former countries that managed Covid well for the most part, will get slack or unlucky and Covid will break through. Just look at Taiwan in April 2021.

Forewarned is forearmed. If we thought we were going through a crazy time of change, hang on to your hats. We are just getting started. Everything is circular, what goes up, must come down. Just hang in there.

Yet as with most tumultuous times, there will be tremendous opportunity for companies and individuals to thrive. Old ways will die and hopefully new and better ways of doing things will emerge (big stress on “hopefully”). As the old Chinese curse (or blessing) goes: “May you live in Interesting times!”