Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads January 26th, 2025
Be at war with your vices, at peace with your neighbors, and let every new year find you a better man — Benjamin Franklin
- A deeply philosophical conversation on AI and society.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Un5EHASTpJI
2. “One of Kahneman and Tversky’s earliest insights was the simple observation that we feel the pain of loss more intensely than the pleasure of profit. It’s irrational to an economist, but we put more value on not losing $100 than we do on gaining $100.
We also have a skewed perception of probable gains and losses: We overestimate the likelihood of unlikely things. Insurance is a profitable business because people would rather suffer a series of guaranteed small losses (premiums) than risk a single but unlikely catastrophic loss. The healthy profit margins of insurance companies reflect our tendency to overestimate the likelihood of calamities. Overestimating an unlikely outcome is also the secret behind the lotto, which offers terrible odds. Some examples of how this has influenced my actions. (Note: I am not claiming these are the right way to put Kahneman’s insights to use, just my way.) What I’ve done:
I actively limit the number of decisions I have to make to preserve neuron power for the key ones. I have other people order for me at restaurants; I have a uniform for work/working out, wearing the same thing every day, and someone else buys my clothes. I delegate the majority of decisions at Prof G Media — I participate in a one-hour weekly editorial meeting and check in with my executive producer 2x per month on business issues. I have not planned a vacation in 20 years or put anything on my calendar in 10.
Despite having made more than 30 investments in private firms over the past decade, I review few documents, and rarely even sign them. (That’s all handled by counsel.) I try to reserve the largest possible cache of gray matter for research, thinking, storytelling (writing, presentations, etc.), and investment decisions. Over the next five years, I plan to outsource all investment decisions so I can focus on storytelling.”
https://www.profgalloway.com/think-slow-2/
3. Some scary geopolitical takes. G7 going to G-Zero, everyone for themselves.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UebsZIt_XgI
4. I like this idea of “Custom made reality.” A great discussion on having a good life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjvIjTJsLRo
5. Sartorial Shooter. Great advice for young men. Find challenges, get some life experiences, get tougher. Build yourself.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Gp4IoVPCxc
6. “Ultimately, regular entrepreneur communication helps everyone. It helps the entrepreneur get their thoughts, metrics, goals, and reflections down in one place. It helps partners, mentors, advisors, and investors stay up-to-date with both the good and the bad, as well as ways they can help and contribute to the mission.
And when the journey has come to a close, it provides a diary of sorts, documenting all the craziness and effort required to build something from nothing. Every entrepreneur should write a regular communication, and the best time to start is now.”
https://davidcummings.org/2024/12/28/5-best-practices-for-effective-entrepreneur-updates/
7. “You’re always inside a system. The only question is: Which?”
https://oldbooksguy.substack.com/p/10-laws-of-big-systems
8. Really went down the rabbit hole of Jules, Sartorial Shooter. A true renaissance gentleman.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HpwKySPPDGM&t=5604s
9. Living the digital nomad life in Tbilisi. Good for him. Low cost structure and making & saving USD.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwIUQfDiOsM
10. “That’s what creators do. They solve the infinite set of problems that life presents. Without problems, there is no creativity. Without problems, there is no purpose. Pain and suffering stem from the inability to understand problems and, more so, relinquishing your ability to solve them. A world without creativity and purpose is a world without life.
The mark of a sovereign individual is that they learn how to learn:
They have an evolving vision for the future
They build a meaningful project as one stepping stone
They identify problems that prevent progress
They generate ideas and test solutions
They become more efficient with time
They deposit their creation and knowledge
If valuable, they are rewarded by the monetary system of that society
If not valuable, they error correct until valuable
And lastly, they never, ever quit because someone else’s vision trumps their own.
Do it all. Write. Design. Market. Sell. Film. Code. Be the generalist you were born to be. Be the orchestrator of ideas. The governor of thought. AI is simply a tool that now allows you to learn and do all of these. Once it becomes your master, you lose.
Nobody can tell you what to do in the future. But has it ever been any different? We’re just talking in circles at this point. You’re looking for a quick fix as always and you know that the longest path is the quickest fix. The principles haven’t changed, you just haven’t taken the leap.”
https://thedankoe.com/letters/agi-will-make-you-irrelevant-how-to-future-proof-yourself/
11. “The truth most miss: The price of a great cofounder isn’t what you give up at the start. It’s what you must give up every day — your certainties, your ego, your illusion of control. The fees are paid in questioned assumptions, abandoned convictions, and constant adaptation.
Here’s what you do tomorrow: Stop looking for the perfect cofounder. Start looking for someone worth paying the price for. Someone who makes you think better, not just work harder. Someone whose doubts you trust more than your own certainties. Someone who makes you question everything except their commitment to finding truth.
Because the highest price you’ll pay isn’t finding a great cofounder. It’s what happens when you try to build something massive without one.”
https://medium.com/@mtrajan/price-of-a-great-co-founder-5fe35d62b441
12. “Whenever you see a topic becoming too polarizing in SV, it’s a good idea to take a step back and play devil’s advocate. When everyone was posting about how OSS AI models were catching up, you could still see where the talent was flowing (OpenAI, Anthropic) and make an educated bet that proprietary models would lead with new form factors.
When codegen was the focus of all of tech twitter, companies like HeyGen and ElevenLabs were being started as some of the breakout apps of the GenAI revolution.”
https://shomik.substack.com/p/escape-the-silicon-valley-filter
13. “The key difference, for now, is that Moscow’s problems appear more latent than Kyiv’s. A manpower shortage on the frontline can have an immediate impact at the tactical and operational levels, especially if the adversary holds the initiative. However, at the strategic level, Russia’s outlook remains anything but optimistic; I would even argue it is exceptionally grim.
Like anyone else, I cannot pinpoint exactly when Russia’s resources will be exhausted — it could happen in 2026 or perhaps as late as 2030. But there is no question that Moscow’s capacity to wage war is finite, and Russia will eventually run out. The critical question is whether Ukraine can hold out until that point.
This is what Western decision-makers need to understand: at a strategic level, Russia is a dead man walking. 2024 has made this highly evident, most notably by Russia’s complete inability to expand itsforces to effectively respond to Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk. The West’s minimum objective for Ukraine should therefore simply be to ensure Ukraine can outlast Russia. This is entirely achievable, provided Europe and the United States maintain consistent support with equipment and Ukraine addresses its manpower challenges (a more realistic scenario if Ukraine’s partners uphold their commitments).”
https://missilematters.substack.com/p/where-the-war-stands-personal-reflections
14. “As I often emphasize, if you’re looking to invest in outliers, groundbreaking technology, and the next big thing, you need to consider emerging managers. These are the true scouts — identifying diamonds in the rough, taking the boldest risks, and positioning themselves for the biggest rewards.
When choosing a manager, ensure they offer opportunities to learn, co-invest, follow on, and actively support their portfolio companies. Keep in mind, building a successful startup takes time. Raising additional capital, scaling operations, and achieving a meaningful exit is a long-term journey. Investing in this space means committing to a partnership that spans years — patience and collaboration are key.”
https://startupstechvc.beehiiv.com/p/are-mega-vc-funds-just-pe-now
15. “Due to a fluke of history, widespread prosperity existed in a few locations in the 20th century.
That fluke is in the process of correcting itself as we speak.
You can’t rely on wages earned from employment to sustain your standard of living. Building a successful business is the only way to survive.
The good thing is that this is the easiest time in history to make money.
You have to pull yourself up to the top of the pyramid instead of coasting in the middle, because the middle won’t exist for much longer.
It’s either the bottom of the pyramid or the top.
You can either be a business owner Sovereign Individual yourself or you can be one of the interchangeable laborers hoping/praying that you get a job working for one.
Which will you choose?”
https://www.tetramarketing.io/p/the-world-is-flat
16. “The mega trends in the USA are unchanged and nobody (Trump, DeSantis, Elon, Bezos, flavor of the month trending main character) will change that.
The mega trends are as follows:
-Global competitive market
-AI and robotics removing manual labor
-Crypto to remove legacy financial systems
-Wealth inequality due to tech (Tether made $10B *profit* with 200 people or $50,000,000 per person!!!!)
-Need for UBI or UBL (wrote about here years ago)
-People spending nearly all their time online/on-chain as economic activity is largely done Digitally (Digital Immersion)
To be clear on this, all of these six things are not going to change regardless of who is in charge. This is just a cartoon account writing on the internet but that’s the view on this side of the interwebz.”
Tariffs/Automation: With a quick history recap, the USA essentially shipped all its manufacturing abroad decades ago. This was in exchange for making the US dollar the default for all global trade. Effectively, weaponizing the dollar allowing the USA to freeze and sanction anyone we like (what we did to Russia).
Slowly but surely bleeding them out.
We’ve been in a “war” for a long time. It just isn’t missiles and bombs, it’s a chokehold on Foreign countries that do anything we dislike.
The cost of this is pretty clear, it makes manufacturing cost prohibitive in the USA due to the extreme strength of the dollar. Therefore, if the policies of Tariffs and manufacturing in the USA work it’ll be a long process and will require robots to compete with child/slave labor from China/Mexico.
The summary here (assuming he goes through with tariffs) is that short term costs increase. The end result is automation of the process onshore.”
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/trump-policies-expectations-vs-reality
17. “TL;DR: Since the USA is finally waking up to weaponizing USDT and further entrenching the dollar as a global trade currency, Americans have much less to worry about. As long as you hold your coins on cold storage in a doomsday scenario of confiscation, you’ll be fine.
The majority have already bought millions of BTC via centralized platforms. The USA no longer views it as a threat (and rightfully so).
Summary
Nothing, NOTHING, will ever pass in the U.S. that threatens the dollar’s role as the ultimate weapon of control. The U.S. weaponized the dollar and traded its manufacturing base for global control. Crypto *was* the counter-weapon — a decentralized, censorship-resistant alternative that challenges the fiat system. However. At this point the US owns an enormous amount of crypto and the more likely scenario is that it further entrenches the dollar.
Great news for crypto coins and America. Bad news for people abroad.”
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/the-usd-inflation-and-crypto-the
18. “Expect a lot of stars and strips and tricornered hats — the Tea Party with higher production values.
The boom boom aesthetic plays with the muscular patriotism of Americana. It summons the animal spirits: performance and profit. We see this in the growth of the Gundo, the defense tech cluster in the Los Angeles County beach town, El Segundo.
And don’t expect the westernwear trend to go anywhere soon. As Paul Skallas noted, country music is the most popular genre in America. Bela Hadid moved to Dallas to date a cowboy. But this is one of many Americana looks. Westernwear joins white trash chic (Southern), neo-yuppie (Coastal), preppy revival (Northeastern), and elevated workwear (Midwestern) as one regional element among many.”
https://www.8ball.report/p/2025-predictions
19. “A critical part of the CEO’s job is realizing when it’s time to sell the company.
I’m talking about the much more difficult case where the company is performing well financially, but the CEO sees storm clouds on the horizon that indicate the future will quite probably not be as rosy as the past.
The ultimate problem is that you can’t see around corners when you’re only looking at performance metrics. Even leading indicators like pipeline won’t be leading enough to show these problems. The best chance of seeing the problem in the data is if a few of your earliest, most visionary customers have moved onto the new thing. But due to switching costs, this doesn’t often happen. Other companies, who skipped your generation of technology, are more likely to be the first adopters of the new, new thing.
https://kellblog.com/2024/12/30/the-paradox-of-saying-its-time-to-sell-the-company/
20. Great list of some interesting new history and geopolitics books for 2025.
21. Love this series. Living like a King in Yerevan, a cool city I need to spend more time in.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPfb9qTpzKA
22. “So what am I going to do? I’ve had a hard time writing the December letter and finishing this piece. If anything this makes me want to buy gold and start running my own bitcoin node and buy more bitcoin when the MVRV is flashing price is below realized price as a f-ck you to the Professional Managerial Class. Syria has showed me they hate my friends and I, and I hate them back.
Meanwhile buying a house has showed me while all these things are happening in the world, loans are underwritten with the assumption that counterparty and liquidity risk are not real risks in the US financial system. I think those are real risks, so I want to continue to have liquidity that is not someone else’s liability now more than ever.
But I am trying to be less naive as I get older and fully realize that it is entirely possible the PMC goes right on ruling, being able to slowly take debt/GDP down, since most people say they want freedom but actually want safety, comfort, and a soft life. So I also fully realize that having dollar liquidity by building a bond ladder and a permanent portfolio makes sense.
Overall the point for me after Syria is I want to be in a position where I live a great life, am prepared for either outcome, and any time I hear the PMC or their apologists tell me why I need to care or defend the RBO I can just smile and silently think, “go f-ck yourself.”
https://radigan-carter.beehiiv.com/p/syria-and-beyond
23. “And the irony in all this, is that the big winner from increased European defence spending, whatever Trump might say, is the US, as it still has the most capable military kit and military industries to supply Europe with the defensive kit it now will need in huge scale. Whatever the outcome of the war in Ukraine, US defence industries will profit immensely from the outcome. Indeed, arguably a cynic would suggest that for the US, a bad peace deal in Ukraine, leaving Europe insecure, will see the biggest demand for US military kit and for years to come.
The big conclusion still for Europe is that the best investment that it can make in its own long term defence is through short term investment in making sure Ukraine is able to defend itself and the rest of Europe. It also should have a huge self interest in making sure any peace deal agreed by Trump et al over the war in Ukraine is sustainable, meaning it leaves Ukraine secure against future attacks.
This could be through NATO membership, security guarantees from individual Western states or assurances to Ukraine that it will be supplied with the full spectrum of Western conventional military capability to be able to defend itself as per the State of Israel guarantee.”
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/ukraine-is-key-to-europes-lt-defence
24. “Japan is not threatening, not feared; but Japan is admired. It is the world’s only true post-industrial society, a frontrunner in many areas — a role model for having engineered the fastest and most successful economic development ever, for having a socio-economy resilient enough to survive the biggest deflation cycle in history without suffering social unrest and disruptive inequality; and that is now teaching the world how to age gracefully, how to maintain and create equitable prosperity by enhancing asset income rather than relying primarily on employment income.
All over the world, Japan is admired for an exemplary balance between intense economic modernization and solid perseverance of national traditions and social norms; for having not just imported western culture but perfected and improved upon it in so many areas — from architecture to fashion to food or video games, male- and female figure skating, golf or baseball. Make no mistake: viewed from a global perspective, Japan is the most highly respected nation and culture in both the East and the West, and the North and the South of this world. Japan has got what it takes to lead a global ‘Pax Nipponica’.
In 2024, Japan has a unique opportunity to re-set national ambitions and goals. It`s not about saying ‘no’ or ‘yes’ to America (or China). The world is waiting for Japan to say ‘we propose to do it this way’. Japan has got what it takes to be a global rule maker and mediator between East and West, North and South. ‘Pax Nipponica’ is an ambition the world is waiting for, and Japan’s elite should embrace. As a Japan optimist, I hope they will.”
https://japanoptimist.substack.com/p/pax-nipponica
25. I always appreciate what Joules the Sartorial Shooter says. A thoughtful, smart, practical and successful business man who is a good role model for men. Just like Justin Waller.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndHIaigykPM&t=979s
26. “The demand for manpower may see more mercenaries in frontline roles, augmenting national forces during major deployments or even forming the whole of an expeditionary corps for politically sensitive operations. Russia’s Wagner Group is something of a template for this: although more of an organ of the state than a true PMC, used to deploy Russian ex-servicemen without official involvement, it has been active throughout Africa and the Middle East.”
https://dispatch.bazaarofwar.com/p/mercenaries-and-manpower
27. “The emergence of such PMCs hinges entirely on the market for them; yet any country requiring their support will only know when it faces a very unexpected shortfall — few countries would force their combat troops to rely on an untested service. This catch-22 makes it very difficult for any contractor to build a business. Added to this is the complication that any business touching on national security prerogatives is typically carefully guarded by its home country — military assets automatically become a diplomatic asset.
Current geopolitical configurations divert acquisition efforts toward one of two large blocs: the US its allies, or the broader China-Russia bloc. Only a few countries are able to straddle the two (e.g. India), although factions are less constrained in more localized conflicts where the requirements are smaller and the stakes lower — witness Libya, where the national government received backing from Turkey and Italy, whereas France, Russia, and the UAE provided support to General Haftar.”
https://dispatch.bazaarofwar.com/p/middle-tier-technology-an-invisible
28. Digging this series. Living like a King in Madrid, one of the best cities in Europe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Y9HskItx60
29. “What about China? On one hand, unlike Russia, it’s a productive, manufacturing-oriented state — a repressive place in many ways, but unless you’re a Uighur in Xinjiang, not exactly a nightmare. Hong Kongers have experienced a steady loss of political and cultural freedoms since the city’s peaceful resistance was crushed a few years ago, but people there are not yet being sent to the camps or slaughtered in the street.
And yet China is becoming a more repressive place over time, as its power grows. The government is building hundreds of new detention facilities all across the country for the emperor’s political opponents. The civil society that began to flourish in previous decades has been increasingly ground into nothingness. The bargain in which the state provides economic growth in exchange for rights and freedoms has broken down, and Chinese people are now asked to accept the authoritarianism without the growth. Discontent may not yet be so apparent that tourists are inundated with expressions of rage, but signs of dissatisfaction are on the rise, and those who can get money out of the country are generally doing it.
If you bend the knee to Earth’s new empires, you are essentially making a bet that these trends will reverse themselves — that the repression is a temporary expedient, a necessary transitory phase while the empires establish order, after which things will get better for your grandchildren. There are many times and places in history when such a bet would have actually paid off. But the Ukrainians who are resisting Russian conquest have decided that given their history with previous incarnations of that empire, it’s a bad bet this time.
Whether Taiwan will resist or capitulate in the face of overwhelming force remains to be seen, but the other nations in Asia — Japan, Vietnam, Korea, etc. — have a long history of refusing to incorporate themselves into Chinese empires.
Until now, the independence of those countries has been guaranteed by the intercession of a more distant great power — the United States. But that once-mighty nation is increasingly not in a condition to resist the Chinese empire — or even the far weaker Russian one.”
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-players-on-the-eve-of-destruction
30. “This is not Ukraine’s war. This is a war that is being fought on Ukrainian territory, but for the principles on which Europe rests and for its security. To ignore this conflict would be to accept a world where borders mean nothing, international law is dead, and aggressors like Russia can trample smaller states without consequence. This is a war that concerns all of us –because what happens in Ukraine tomorrow can happen anywhere in Europe.
Their fight is not an act of mercy toward the West; it is a defense of the world we all want to live in. Every European country that provides aid to Ukraine is investing in its own security and future; it is not giving anything away to Ukraine. Because if Ukraine loses, Europe as a whole loses.
The war in Ukraine is not a local conflict — it is a moment of truth for the whole world. It is a conflict between a rule-abiding civilization and an authoritarianism that defies all boundaries. Any country that hesitates to support Ukraine today is taking a huge risk with its own future.”
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/44643
31. Always a fun show: The Random show that is both entertaining and educational.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFMCySpcroI&t=3490s
32. “At the end of the 2 weeks, I left feeling deflated and foolish. I didn’t want to start a robotics company. The only thing that seemed interesting to me was humanoids. It started to dawn on me that what I actually wanted was to look like Elon, and that is incredibly cringe. It hurts to even type this out.”
https://vinay.sh/i-am-rich-and-have-no-idea-what-to-do-with-my-life/
33. Interesting take on AI. Fragile ecosystem of advanced microchips will be challenged in the future.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XXBPzeMgaM
34. “There’s currently no magic routine that will make humans live forever. But for tech millionaire Bryan Johnson, the quest to live longer lies in a routine of pills, shots, blood draws, and experimental therapy regimes he says are rewinding his biological clock. And in Netflix’s new documentary Don’t Die: The Man Who Wants To Live Forever, released Jan. 1, filmmakers bring viewers behind the scenes to discover how much work and cash trying to live forever actually takes.
It’s a fascinating attempt to peel back the psyche of a man who is obsessed with aging, and one who ends up arguing that even with his quirks, Johnson might be building something meaningful to people. But he’s also very, very strange.”
35. A really fun and interesting episode of 2025 predictions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxNUAwBWX4I
36. “Entrepreneurs would do well to pay more attention to who has a ‘yes’ face, to those who more frequently volunteer to help. Then, turn that understanding into a strategy to seek out more people with a bias towards saying yes. Entrepreneurs should look for the ‘yes’ face and get help on their mission.”
https://davidcummings.org/2025/01/04/entrepreneurs-should-look-for-the-yes-face/
37. “Truth is, as the axis of dictatorships continues to consolidate, both politically and militarily, the collective West — though declaring itself united — remains fractured. Democratic allies are often at cross-purposes when it comes to their economic interests, and they lack a shared threat assessment as well.
The post-Cold War decades have accustomed Western societies to life with limited risk — or preferably without risk altogether. In the minds of their citizens, globalization removed state-on-state violence from their national security equation. The “complex interdependence” fostered by the internationalization of manufacturing enmeshed state interests to such an extent, that for them, it became competition rather than war, and negotiation rather than confrontation that framed the world order.
Our naïveté and wishful thinking prevented us from realizing that when it comes to hard power, there’s only dependence — and there’s nothing complex about that, other than who depends on whom and for what.”
38. Stealth wealth for the win.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWYxAbXVK1U
39. Fun series of videos. Live Like a King in KL.
