Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads February 16th, 2025
“A good half of the art of living is resilience.” ― Alain de Botton
- More oil and geopolitics, focused on Venezuela.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYnYZF1fnz0
2. “Just a few years ago, there were few regions of the world that seemed as dysfunctional as the Middle East. Some Middle Eastern countries had oil wealth, but overall living standards were mediocre and pretty stagnant, and there was little domestic technology or competitive industry to speak of. Authoritarianism was everywhere, and strict religious values had produced persistent social inequalities.
And most importantly, the whole region was mired in a seemingly intractable morass of wars. The conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Libya, and elsewhere claimed millions of lives, and displaced more millions. Dictators, rebels, religious zealots, and proxy militias sent by great powers and regional powers alike battled it out on the bloody sands for decades.
And yet when I look at the Middle East today, I’m strangely hopeful. I don’t know if the region is primed for global ascendance the way Europe was in the mid-1600s, but I anticipate significantly better days ahead, for a number of reasons. The most important are the decline of war and the green energy transition, while the demographic transition will also be helpful.
Half a century from now, the desert may bloom, and the region may be a powerhouse of green energy, industry, and software, rather than the playground of oil sheikhs, warlords, and hyper-religious madmen. I know it’s a bold prediction, but stranger things have happened.”
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/why-im-long-term-bullish-on-the-middle
3. “Climate tech is now mainstream. The phrase “climate tech” evolved from differentiating the 2019ish-onward wave of climate and clean energy startups from the earlier Cleantech 1.0 batch to a category that represents a global ecosystem of founders, investors, corporations, conferences, coworking spaces, and non-profits. The market forces we sought arrived.
Meanwhile AI has made quick progress. We’ve moved from LLMs to apps and robots. AI accelerated climate tech startups in weather forecasting, wildfire detection, energy efficiency, grid response, route optimization, robot manipulation, and protein discovery to name a few areas.
AI has supercharged other industries too. Legal, accounting, bookkeeping, and tax services are being fueled by or replaced by AI apps. In education, two-year-olds are learning to read, and five-year-olds are speed-running 5th grade math.
The SaaS stalwarts of productivity, fintech, marketing, and e-comm are undergoing massive shifts. Not to mention how AI makes robots highly intelligent, and sometimes scary too. AI will permeate every tech sector.”
https://thebreeze.substack.com/p/the-breeze-beyond-climate-tech
4. “So Putin will not stop at a Yalta 2, but he wants total victory against the West.
What Trump does not realise is that unless any peace deal makes Ukraine secure from future attack, Putin will inevitably use that as an excuse for future military invasions. That reality, that Putin will not stop there, and the insecurity a likely bad peace will inevitably bestow on Ukraine, means that Ukraine will not see the required investment needed to ensure its successful economic development. And without successful economic development — the risk is of a repeat of the 22 years of failed economic development between 1991 and 2013 where Ukraine was stuck between East and West with no proper anchor, and hence it will be subject to social and political instability.
Ask yourself why Ukraine suffered two revolutions in 2004/05 and then again in 2014. History will surely repeat itself as millions of soldiers and migrants return to disappointment — and future social and political instability will be exploited by Putin either seeking to capture politics in Ukraine or an excuse for future invasions.”
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/europe-needs-a-plan-b-and-c-on-trump
5. “A dozen new funds ranging from $30M to $350M. Two that I’ll call out, not just because I know them personally, but because aspects of their strategy directly articulate aspects of the Great Unbundling taking place in venture.
First? Chemistry Ventures started by Mark Goldberg of Index, Kristina Shen of a16z, and Ethan Kurzweil of Bessemer. In a blog post from October 2024, the new firm articulated their manifesto:
We will “out-hustle the legacy firms that have grown distracted by scale.”
Second? Hanabi Capital started by Mike Volpi, Bryan Offutt, and Ishani Thakur from Index. In a piece from Bloomberg breaking the news about the new fund, they shared that Hanabi is “investing Volpi’s personal money as well as funds from his friends and family.” I’ve written before about firms kicking against the pricks of managing outside money and, instead, managing their own money.
The combination of an emphasis on leanness and increasing attention paid to whose money is being managed all represent a common counterpositioning: these investors don’t want to be asset managers; they want to be adventure capitalists.”
https://investing101.substack.com/p/venture-capital-unbundled
6. “In other words, Xi is making the Chinese economy look a little bit more like the old Soviet one, where production was determined by plans instead of by the market. He’s using banks and industrial policy to tell Chinese companies to build a bunch of specific high-tech manufactured products, and they’re doing what he’s telling them to.
Why did this approach fail in the USSR? Ultimately, it was because Soviet manufacturers were inefficient — they made a bunch of stuff, but they produced it at a loss. That was unsustainable.
Chinese factories are a lot better than Soviet ones were. But if you tell enough different manufacturers to all produce the same stuff at the same time, they’re going to compete with each other, and their profits will mostly fall, and they’ll start taking big losses.
In fact, we can already see this starting to happen in China.
Exporting your way out of a recession is fine and good — it’s basically how Germany and South Korea shrugged off the Great Recession in the early 2010s.3 But China’s export boom is heavily subsidized, both with explicit government subsidies, and — more importantly — with ultra-cheap abundant bank loans. Subsidies are distortionary — they mean that China is making the cars that Germany and Thailand and Indonesia and other countries would be making for themselves if markets were allowed to operate freely. By subsidizing exports on such a massive scale, China is distorting the whole global economy.”
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-pettis-paradigm-and-the-second
7. “Here’s the brutal truth.
If you can’t carve a 60 minute block out of your day to work on a project that acts as a stepping stone toward your ideal future, where do you think your life will end up?
On the other end of the spectrum, routines free up mental space to be creative. That’s the secret of most successful people.
They create routines that:
Move the needle toward their ideal future
Reduce the cognitive load of repetitive tasks
Allow their mind enough breathing room to think outside of their survival needs (and toward their actualization needs)
But most people don’t see that creative potential because they are living in the past or future. Worried about the work or arguments they’re going to have. Since they’re in this perpetual state of stress and worry, their mind is narrow, and they numb that pain with quick pleasures.”
https://thedankoe.com/letters/how-60-minutes-a-day-can-change-your-life/
8. So much wisdom here from Sahil Bloom. Really good stuff.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PC3LWGnhMyI
9. Super impressive city landscapes here by drone. Chongqing. I can’t seem to get enough.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNHz8SSA95o
10. Man is selling his own book of course & obviously pro-China.
China is open for business especially if you are from the Global South.
Good to get an alternative view of the Chinese market. Still wouldn’t advise doing business in China if you are from the West.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FjEJm8AosWc&t=404s
11. Quiet family dynasty building an arms empire over 500 years.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDRkEnJi5gU
12. Some real sober and non-groupthink view on geopolitics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pnDEDhYhkbM
13. “But this size discrepancy doesn’t change the importance of this huge land mass. That’s why Donald Trump is so interested in forming a tight bond with this autonomous territory of Denmark.
In addition to hosting the United State’s northern most military base (Pituffik Space Base), the United States wants Greenland for two more huge reasons: resources and location.”
https://codyshirk.com/us-wants-greenlands-rare-earth/
14. An insight dense discussion with two OGs of the tech industry.
The world has changed. Thought leadership to so much change now that you have to be thought follower.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RqGXFDw_JQ8
15. “TLDR: with the median SaaS company trading at 3.7x Price/Sales but growing 20%+ and profitable with an operating margin of 15% despite the massive tailwinds in Japan, I believe we can find attractive opportunities in this bucket.
Japanese software is potentially in an enviable position because of the structural barriers for foreign players that have deterred them from entering thus far. The unique differences in: needs among Japanese Corporates; GTM strategy; labor-intensive sales; lack of brand awareness have meant there’s been limited success by foreign software bizes to gain meaningful presence as a whole. (“Constellation Software? Who the hell is that?”)
The only noticeable ones IMO has been generally the majors i.e. the Public Clouds, Microsoft, SAP, SalesForce, and a handful of others. There are also uniquely Japanese pain points that Japanese SaaS companies try to solve which foreign companies simply don’t have an answer for. SanSan for example initially started with their solution to read information from a physical business card onto a company’s digital database. If this sounds odd, in Japan we don’t do LinkedIn, we generally still exchange physical business cards (surprise!).
Unique market structures in certain verticals like for CYND for instance, will also mean that there is literally 0 incentive for global companies to adapt as the market opportunity may not be large enough at their scale to make such costly adaptations. Needless to say, Japan is a HUGE market with meaningful white space left, even if some global majors do succeed, I think there will be plenty of space left for local players to shine.
As a foreign investor, you may be somewhat reluctant to look into these companies because you don’t understand the local market. To that, I say don’t be! One significant advantage you have over local investors is that you have an incredible resource/knowledge library namely all the major SaaS companies that exist in the English-speaking world. This not only applies to software but there are certain industries abroad that are simply more developed and mature versus the equivalent in Japan. Through this you can figure out: potentially relevant market risks, a better idea on long-term unit economics, product competitiveness, etc. My friend calls this the ‘time machine principle’. I would not underestimate this advantage.”
https://madeinjapan.substack.com/p/why-i-think-japanese-saas-is-undervalued
16. Peter is a China bear. But systems last longer than people expect.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kI5onbXSByc
17. The art and science of doing venture capital. This was a very insightful conversation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wjEcMsrpJ0
18. Overview of the geopolitics of Latin America. Leftists in office for many places & deep malign CCP influence. Monroe Doctrine will be coming back into the fore.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWRJi3PlZ2A
19. Good background on the Trump discussions on Greenland. Very strategic for America.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pF4rZqLlESY
20. “The mega trends don’t really change and the thesis here is still the same: The most dangerous place you can be is in the middle of the herd.
Playing it safe in a career definitely feels comfortable but the higher ups are already using AI tools/software to get rid of the middle as fast as possible. That’s the vast majority of white collar 6-figure paychecks.
It’s what society has conditioned you to do: “Stick to the plan. Follow the rules. You’ll be rewarded.”
Unfortunately, this no longer works in the 2020s. The boomers who told you to get a stable job for 40 years and retire didn’t adapt to the new economic reality: Equity Owners or nothing.
If everyone is doing it, there is no real upside. No different from investing in something that everyone already knows about. While investing in something like the S&P likely goes up long-term, it’s not going to result in exiting the middle.
People will congratulate you on the small promotions at work but it’s just another step towards being stuck. When everyone is doing the same thing, the returns shrink, the competition intensifies, and the risks multiply.
With globalization, automation, and cost-cutting, wages have stagnated while housing, healthcare, and education costs have skyrocketed. Playing it safe in this environment is like staying in a boat that’s slowly sinking.”
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/trump-initial-change-and-why-corporate
21. Net net: USA needs to reindustrialize ASAP. More industrial policy is coming to America.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uxSVDZGfGIU
22. Good conversation on East Asian geopolitics. Noah Smith is always entertaining.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ecD8IaRd_VU&t=2s
23. Watch this show if you want to get a sense of the craziness in Crypto and the tech space. Always topical conversations.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zsW9F0WXBcA
24. “Whether there is war anywhere on the planet or not doesn’t mean that we don’t need armed forces. So if you want to keep peace, you have to be armed and prepared.These defence technology companies, they do not become unnecessary as the war ends. Arguably the demand might go down, at least the demand from the Ukrainian procurement. But what we’re seeing, talking with our international friends and counterparts, is that over these few years Ukraine has made a very big leap forward and most of this technology that’s being used now is ahead of what is available in the US with the largest military budget on the planet, and there are many parties interested in this technology.
So there’s definitely an opportunity for export, and the export of Ukrainian military technology, I believe it will be open this year one way or another, even if the war continues. So that would mean more revenues for these companies, bigger R&D budgets, and even more innovation.
All of that innovation basically should be seen as investment in making our Western democracies and our rules-based world order stronger. And again, if we don’t do that or if we are doing that slower than the autocracies on the world map, such as Russia, Iran and, China, then we’re doing a disservice to both our ancestors and to our kids, to future generations. We cannot allow that to happen.”
https://www.resiliencemedia.co/p/in-conversation-with-yaroslav-azhnyuk
25. I’d call this Alternative view on geopolitics. Others might call it “tin foil hat” geopolitics. Either way, it’s interesting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4JbscqfJjQ
26. Lots of good stuff: this is the pod to listen to understand what’s happening in tech.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KYzYOPkxLis
27. Chris Sacca is one of the best tech investors but is also an entertainer. Whatever you think of him, he says what he thinks because of his FU money.
And it’s super fun and super insightful to watch this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIBo69EsAzw
28. “These events indicate that the year ahead will be at least as uncertain, violent and chaotic as 2024. However, besides the fighting and posturing of different actors across the globe, key trends will affect the capacity and sustainability of military forces and influence the future of war. Here are five key trends to watch in 2025.”
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/military-trends-watch-2025
29. I really enjoyed this conversation. I have my issues with these folks but this was an insightful and hopeful convo.
Covered Silicon Valley, technology, business, personal growth, politics and God. Lots of food for thought.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=eRlkcRnC9eE
30. Zeihan’s take on advanced semiconductors. Lots of breakpoints on the overall global chain beyond TSMC.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_PEZrDZQNU
31. “As an entrepreneur, the next time you’re hiring for a key position, consider using some or all of these questions as part of your process. Entrepreneurs are wired to move fast and get things done, but hiring is one area where it pays to slow down just a bit and get it right.”
https://davidcummings.org/2025/01/25/45-pre-interview-questions-from-brad-jacobs/
32. “One of my favorite moments in Succession was when Logan Roy told his children: “You are not serious people.” He knew his kids were expectant and lacked the real-world skills and backbone to make good on their threats. We risk our allies, adversaries, and trade partners sensing that we, too … are not a serious people.
I’m not entirely sure how we got here, but I think it has something to do with the way money and business success have become so venerated in our culture. More money used to mean a better meal on a plane; now it’s a (much) better life. Just as we always find uses for additional bandwidth and energy, our consumer economy never runs out of incentives to amass more money.”
https://www.profgalloway.com/america-for-sale/
33. “The common belief that Americans just aren’t good at making stuff seems contradicted by areas in which we are startlingly good at making stuff — for example, SpaceX, which is pumping out the world’s best rockets from U.S. factories in stunningly high volumes. The American South has also become a hub of high-quality auto manufacturing, with the help of Japanese and South Korean investment.
If that’s true, then reshoring has a chance. The uncompetitive dollar will remain a major problem, but Chinese competition can be blocked with tariffs and other trade barriers, and U.S. industrial policies can shift from a pro-finance to a pro-manufacturing orientation. In fact, this approach is already bearing fruit in a number of strategic industries.
At this point, whether reshoring continues is largely a matter of political will and smarts. If Donald Trump keeps attacking the solar industry, or follows through on his earlier threats to cancel the CHIPS Act, it could shift production decisively back to China. It would be ironic if a President who rose to power promising to restore American industry ends up being the person responsible for strangling our industrial revival in its crib.”
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/yes-reshoring-american-industry-is
34. This was a super fun discussion on many topics this week, politics, technology, business, energy. Always entertaining, more so this week.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1pTCSFrkbk&t=1933s
35. Something to be said about being outside of Silicon Valley as an investor. And being grounded in the real world. Worth watching.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g2JOWDUXvTk
